NEW ZEALAND ENERGY SCENARIOS

TIMES-NZ 2.0

EECA, BusinessNZ Energy Council, businesses, academia and government have prepared two potential scenarios of New Zealand’s energy future to 2060.

InsightsTool

The Project

How do you tell the story of the future? What if most Kiwis chose to see climate change as the most important problem to solve? What would happen if they invested now in new technologies and led the world in decarbonising the economy?

As we transition to a net-zero carbon economy by 2050, policy makers, investors and consumers are searching for tools to help them manage risks and seize opportunities. This project will help New Zealanders think about our energy future and the range of trade-offs and choices we might face.

The New Zealand Energy Scenarios TIMES-NZ 2.0 was developed in partnership with EECA, BEC and PSI. We hope this work will encourage discussion about where we are now and where we are heading to get the best outcomes for individuals, businesses and society as a whole.

The Scenarios

Kea

Kea (Cohesive) represents a scenario where climate change is prioritised as the most pressing issue and New Zealand deliberately pursue cohesive ways to achieve a low-emissions economy.

Tūī

Tūī (Individualistic) represents a scenario where climate change is an important issue to be addressed as one of many priorities, with most decisions being left up to individuals and market mechanisms.

Introducing TIMESNZ 2.0

Kate Kolich, EECA & Tina Schirr, BEC

Angela Wilkinson

CEO, World Energy Council

Brian O'Gallachoir

Chair, IEA, ETSAP

Jo Hendy

CEO, Climate Change Commission

Buddhika Rajapakse

Manager Energy Futures, Mercury

Alan Brent

Professor and Group Manager, Sustainable Energy Systems, Victoria University

Tom Kober

Paul Scherrer Institut

Stephen Batstone

BEC 2050 and BEC 2060 Project Manager

Key insights for New Zealand Energy Scenarios – TIMES-NZ 2.0

1. Energy emissions decline strongly in both scenarios

2. Demand for fossil fuels decreases significantly in both scenarios

3. Transport emissions fall dramatically

4. There is an ongoing role for gas

5. Energy efficiency plays a key role in decarbonisation

6. Major increases in electricity demand and electrification

7. Storage plays a key role in the electricity system

8. Highly renewable electricity system

1. Energy emissions decline strongly in both scenarios

2. Demand for fossil fuels decreases significantly in both scenarios

3. Transport emissions fall dramatically

4. There is an ongoing role for gas

5. Energy efficiency plays a key role in decarbonisation

6. Major increases in electricity demand and electrification

7. Storage plays a key role in the electricity system

8. Highly renewable electricity system

Sector Breakdown

There are six sectors explored in TIMES-NZ 2.0

Electricity

Transport

Agriculture

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

We have developed an interactive tool to explore the results of the model and provide some insight into our future energy system. We hope you find the tool useful.